NHL DraftKings Single-Entry Tournament Strategy: Building One Lineup With Upside

NHL DraftKings Single-Entry tournaments are an interesting middle ground in daily fantasy sports. You're not building a conservative lineup specifically designed to finish above a Double-Up cash line, but you're also not entering 20, 50, or 150 different lineups hoping that one of them catches lightning.

You have one lineup.

That makes every roster decision important.

The challenge is finding the right balance between safety and upside. You need players who have realistic paths to a strong score, but you also need enough differentiation to give your lineup a chance to separate itself from the field.

For me, that's what makes Single-Entry tournaments so appealing. You can still take some chances, but those chances should have a reason behind them.

Don't Build a Cash-Game Lineup

The first mistake to avoid is simply taking your favorite Double-Up lineup and entering it into a tournament.

A high-floor lineup can be perfectly acceptable in a cash contest, but Single-Entry tournaments require more upside.

You still want reliable players, but you're looking for players who can produce a difference-making performance.

That could mean a forward skating on the top line and first power-play unit. It could be a defenseman who blocks shots while contributing offensively. It could even be a value player whose role has suddenly increased because of an injury.

The key is identifying players with multiple paths to a big fantasy score.

You don't want to rely on eight separate players having average games.

You want several players with the potential to have exceptional games.

Find the Balance Between Floor and Ceiling

There's a temptation in tournaments to fill your lineup with nothing but boom-or-bust players.

I don't think that's necessary.

If every player in your lineup is extremely volatile, you can end up with a lineup that has enormous theoretical upside but very little chance of putting everything together.

Instead, I like to think of the lineup as a combination of foundation pieces and upside pieces.

Your foundation players are the ones you feel strongly about because of their opportunity, ice time, matchup or role.

Then you add players who may have more volatility but possess legitimate tournament-winning upside.

This gives your lineup a chance to survive a mediocre performance from one or two players while still having enough ceiling to compete near the top.

Stacking Is One of Your Biggest Weapons

NHL DFS is particularly well suited to stacking because goals can create multiple fantasy scoring events.

A goal can produce fantasy points for the scorer, an assist for a teammate and potentially additional value through power-play correlation.

That's why line stacking can be so powerful in tournaments.

Instead of selecting three players from three completely unrelated teams, you might select multiple players from the same offensive unit.

If that line has a big night, your lineup can benefit from several players contributing to the same scoring sequence.

Full Line Stacks

A three-player even-strength line stack can provide strong correlation.

The obvious benefit is that if the line scores multiple goals, you're positioned to benefit from several players.

But don't blindly stack every top line on the slate.

Look at the matchup, projected game environment, player roles and salary.

A great line playing in a difficult matchup may not be as attractive as a slightly less obvious line facing a favorable opponent.

Power-Play Correlation

Power-play stacking is another important consideration.

Players who share the same power-play unit have the potential to benefit from the same scoring events.

For example, a defenseman assisting on a power-play goal scored by one of your forwards can create a nice double benefit.

That's the type of correlation I want to see in a Single-Entry lineup.

Ownership Leverage Matters

Ownership becomes much more important when moving from Double-Ups into tournaments.

If 40 percent of the field has a player and he scores three goals, you probably haven't gained much ground by having him.

But if a player is owned by only 5 percent of the field and produces a huge game, you can potentially move past a large portion of the competition.

That doesn't mean you should automatically fade highly owned players.

That's another common mistake.

A highly owned superstar might still be an excellent play.

The better approach is to ask:

"Where can I be different without sacrificing too much expected production?"

That's ownership leverage.

You don't need nine completely different players.

Sometimes one or two smart differences are enough.

Don't Force Contrarian Plays

Being contrarian is easy.

Being correctly contrarian is much harder.

There's a big difference between finding an overlooked player with a legitimate opportunity and simply selecting somebody nobody else wants.

A player isn't automatically a good tournament option because he has low ownership.

Before using a low-owned player, ask yourself why the player could outperform his salary.

Maybe he's receiving more ice time.

Maybe he's been promoted to a top line.

Maybe he's seeing first-unit power-play minutes.

Maybe his opponent allows significant shot volume.

Maybe his salary hasn't caught up with his new role.

Those are legitimate reasons.

"I think he'll be low-owned" isn't.

Use Salary to Create Differentiation

Salary management is another way to separate your Single-Entry lineup.

You don't necessarily need to spend every dollar of your DraftKings salary cap.

If an inexpensive player has a strong role, using him can allow you to pay up for an elite player elsewhere.

But there's another consideration.

If the obvious value plays are going to be extremely popular, you may want to find a slightly more expensive or less popular alternative.

This isn't about avoiding value.

It's about finding value that the field hasn't completely identified.

Sometimes the difference between a good lineup and a great Single-Entry lineup is one player who provides similar expected production at a lower ownership percentage.

Matchups Should Drive Your Decisions

Don't look at NHL matchups simply by asking which team is better.

Dig a little deeper.

Consider the opposing goaltender, defensive performance, special teams, expected shot volume and overall game environment.

A team that allows a lot of shots can create opportunities for opposing shooters.

A team that takes a lot of penalties can create power-play opportunities.

A game with two strong offensive teams can offer significant tournament upside.

You don't need to predict the exact final score.

You're trying to identify games where fantasy production has multiple ways to emerge.

Don't Overstack Without a Reason

Stacking is powerful, but there is such a thing as too much correlation.

If you put half your lineup into one offense and that team scores one goal, your tournament could be over very quickly.

That's why I prefer purposeful stacking rather than simply loading up on one team.

A three-player line stack can be combined with a mini-stack from another game and individual players who have strong roles.

That creates correlation without making the entire lineup dependent on one result.

Think About How the Field Will Build

One of the advantages of Single-Entry tournaments is that you know many competitors are facing the same problem you are.

They have one lineup too.

That means popular plays will often appear repeatedly.

Ask yourself what the obvious lineup construction looks like.

Which teams will be popular?

Which goalies will attract ownership?

Which inexpensive players make roster construction easy?

Once you understand the obvious lineup, look for reasonable ways to move away from it.

You don't need to be completely different.

You simply need your lineup to have a path to finishing ahead of similar builds.

Your Final Single-Entry Checklist

Before submitting your NHL DraftKings lineup, take a few minutes to review it.

Check player roles.
Are your players receiving the ice time and special-teams opportunities you expected?

Review your stacks.
Do your correlated players actually make sense together?

Look at ownership.
Where are you highly duplicated, and where have you created some leverage?

Review your goalie.
Does the matchup provide both win potential and save opportunities?

Check your value plays.
Are you using inexpensive players because they have legitimate upside or simply because they fit your salary?

Consider your ceiling.
Does the lineup have enough players capable of producing a tournament-level score?

Look for unnecessary risk.
Is there a player you're using simply because you want to be different?

If so, reconsider.

The Bottom Line

Building a successful NHL DraftKings Single-Entry tournament lineup is about finding the middle ground between safety and upside.

You don't want to build a lineup that's so conservative that it can't compete for the top spots. At the same time, you don't want to turn your lineup into nine coin flips.

Start with players who have strong roles and legitimate opportunity. Add correlation through smart line and power-play stacks. Pay attention to ownership and look for opportunities to create leverage without sacrificing too much expected production.

Most importantly, make your differences intentional.

A great Single-Entry lineup doesn't have to look completely different from everyone else's. Sometimes it's simply a lineup that gets the popular plays right, finds one or two overlooked pieces, and has the right combination of players explode on the same night.

That's the beauty of NHL DFS.

You only get one lineup—but if you build it with a plan, that one lineup can have plenty of upside.

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