NHL DraftKings Head-to-Head Strategy: Building Lineups to Beat One Opponent

NHL DraftKings Head-to-Head contests are about as straightforward as DFS gets. You pick your lineup, another player picks theirs, and the highest-scoring lineup wins.

Sounds simple, right?

Well, anyone who has played NHL DFS knows it isn't always that easy.

The biggest mistake I see in Head-to-Head play is approaching the contest like a large-field tournament. You don't need to find the lowest-owned player who scores three goals. You don't need to predict a six-point night from an overlooked defenseman. And you certainly don't need to take unnecessary risks simply because you want your lineup to look different.

Your objective is much simpler:

Build a lineup that gives you the best chance of scoring more fantasy points than one opponent.

That changes the way you should approach NHL DFS.

Prioritize High-Floor Players

When I'm building a Head-to-Head lineup, one of the first things I look for is floor.

In NHL DFS, goals and assists obviously matter, but they aren't the only ways players can accumulate fantasy points. Shots on goal and blocked shots can provide valuable production, while ice time and power-play opportunities can create additional chances for scoring.

That's why I generally prefer players who are involved in the game even when they don't score.

Think about two similarly priced forwards.

Player A needs a goal to have a productive DFS night.

Player B takes several shots, plays significant minutes, gets power-play time and occasionally contributes an assist.

For a tournament, Player A's goal-scoring upside might be attractive.

For Head-to-Head, I'm usually more interested in Player B.

You're trying to reduce the number of ways your lineup can fail.

Don't Ignore Ownership

Ownership percentage is often discussed as though it only matters in tournaments.

It doesn't.

Ownership can be useful information in Head-to-Head contests because highly owned players often represent popular plays that many DFS players consider strong values or favorable matchup options.

If you believe a player is one of the best options on the slate, there isn't necessarily a good reason to avoid him simply because he is popular.

In fact, fading an obvious high-floor player just to be different can create unnecessary risk.

Imagine a highly owned superstar who is playing on the top line and first power-play unit against a weak defensive team.

You decide to avoid him because you don't want to have the same player as your opponent.

He scores two goals.

Your opponent has him.

You don't.

Suddenly, your clever contrarian strategy has created a hole that may be difficult to overcome.

In Head-to-Head contests, being different isn't the objective. Winning is.

Minimize Unnecessary Risk

There is a place for contrarian plays in DFS.

Head-to-Head isn't always that place.

A low-owned player can absolutely have a huge night. That's part of what makes NHL DFS exciting. But if you're selecting a player primarily because you hope everyone else avoids him, you should stop and ask yourself why.

Is there a legitimate reason to like the player?

Maybe he's been promoted to the top line.

Maybe he's receiving first-unit power-play time.

Maybe his salary hasn't caught up with his new role.

Maybe the matchup is excellent.

Those are good reasons.

"I think nobody will own him" isn't enough.

A contrarian play should have a logical argument behind it—not simply the desire to be different.

Matchup Selection Matters

Not all NHL matchups are created equal.

When selecting players for a Head-to-Head lineup, consider the opponent's defensive strength, goaltending situation, pace of play and penalty-killing ability.

You don't have to predict exactly how the game will unfold. You're looking for favorable environments.

A talented player facing a strong defensive team may still produce, but if another player with a similar salary has a much better matchup, the second option may provide the better cash-game opportunity.

This is especially important when selecting expensive players.

If you're paying a premium for a superstar, you want a reasonable path toward that player returning value.

Line Combinations Are Important

One of my favorite things to check before NHL DFS lineups lock is the current line configuration.

A player's role can change quickly.

Someone who was skating on the second line yesterday might suddenly find himself playing alongside a team's best offensive players tonight.

That can change his DFS value considerably.

The same applies to power plays.

A player receiving first-unit power-play time has additional opportunities to produce when the opponent takes a penalty.

Before locking your lineup, check the latest available line combinations and special-teams roles.

Don't build your lineup based entirely on yesterday's information.

Be Careful With Goaltenders

Goaltending is one of the more difficult positions in NHL DFS because there is a significant amount of variance.

A strong goalie can give up four goals.

A relatively inexpensive goalie can have a 35-save shutout.

For Head-to-Head contests, I generally want to identify a goalie who combines a reasonable chance of earning the win with enough expected shot volume to generate saves.

The matchup matters.

The team playing in front of the goalie matters.

And, perhaps most importantly, make sure the goalie is actually starting.

A last-minute lineup change can ruin an otherwise carefully constructed DFS lineup.

Don't Overload One Game

Stacking can be useful in Head-to-Head contests, but I wouldn't automatically load up on one team.

If you stack several players from the same offense and that team struggles to score, you could lose multiple roster spots at once.

A smaller stack can give you some correlation without making your entire lineup dependent on one result.

For example, pairing a center with a winger from the same line can make sense because one player's goal can potentially lead to an assist for the other.

But balance is important.

Remember, you're not trying to create the lineup with the highest possible ceiling. You're trying to create a lineup with a strong probability of producing a competitive score.

When Should You Use Contrarian Players?

There are situations where a contrarian play makes sense in Head-to-Head.

Suppose a player is projected to receive increased ice time because of an injury. He's inexpensive, has a favorable matchup and has been moved onto a productive line.

Even if ownership is expected to be low, that's not necessarily a reason to avoid him.

In this situation, you're not playing him because he's contrarian.

You're playing him because his opportunity appears better than his salary suggests.

That's an important distinction.

Avoid highly contrarian players when their appeal is based almost entirely on a low ownership percentage, recent fluky production or the hope that they have an unusually large game.

Build Around Opportunity

One of the simplest ways to improve your Head-to-Head process is to stop asking:

"Who do I think will score tonight?"

Instead, ask:

"Who is likely to have the most opportunities to score fantasy points?"

That subtle change can improve your decision-making.

Look for players receiving strong ice time, top-line assignments, power-play opportunities and plenty of offensive involvement.

Then consider the matchup and salary.

You won't get every decision right. Nobody does.

But over time, building around opportunity rather than trying to predict individual goals can lead to a much more disciplined approach.

Final Head-to-Head Checklist

Before submitting your lineup, run through a quick checklist:

• Are my core players high-floor options?

• Are my forwards getting strong ice time?

• Who is on the top power-play units?

• Are my players facing favorable matchups?

• Is my goalie confirmed?

• Am I paying for legitimate opportunity rather than reputation?

• Have I avoided unnecessary low-owned gambles?

• Does my lineup have some correlation without relying too heavily on one game?

• Am I using salary efficiently?

• Would I still like this lineup if I couldn't see my opponent's lineup?

That last question is important.

You don't need to know what your opponent is doing.

You need to build the best lineup you can with the information available.

The Bottom Line

NHL DraftKings Head-to-Head contests reward discipline.

You don't need to swing for the fences with every roster spot. In fact, doing so can make your results more volatile than necessary.

Focus on high-floor players, favorable matchups, strong ice-time roles and power-play opportunities. Use ownership as information rather than something you automatically need to fight. And when you consider a contrarian play, make sure there's a legitimate hockey and DFS reason behind it.

The goal isn't to build the most interesting lineup.

It's to build a lineup that gives you the best chance to finish ahead of one opponent.

In Head-to-Head DFS, boring can be beautiful.

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